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18.4.10

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This weakening of the dollar should come around the end of the year?

There are two dynamics playing out here. One is that the euro is temporarily on sale here with an opportunity to buy versus the dollar. Over the longer term, we believe currently the market is pricing in a fiscal tightening by the Fed. It is very difficult to say when, and I may be off by a quarter or two on this, but I do see this trend happening since the US economy will at some point run out of steam, and what is the Fed is going to do at that point with interest rates almost at zero? We believe the Fed will move from credit easing to quantitative easing and that should have a very negative impact on the dollar.

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