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EUR/USD (1.3553) EUR/USD is down slightly overnight, weighed by worries about Greece. Spot failed at downtrend resistance from the Dec high).


  • Trend: Daily crossing higher; Weekly higher.
  • Overbought/Oversold (stochastics): Daily oversold; Weekly oversold.
  • Support / Resistance Levels: Support for EUR/USD lies at 1.3268 (Mar25,26 low) and 1.2994 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of 2008-2009 rally.) Resistance lies at 1.3603 (downtrend from Dec), 1.3818 (Mar17 high), 1.4026 (Feb3 high), 1.4194 (Jan25 high), 1.4579 (Jan13 high) and 1.4626 (Nov low).


  • The CFTC, EUR, non-commercial, net position collapsed to -73.4, a new record. Given the subsequent resolution (at least temporarily) to the Greek issue, the unwinding of this position could lead to significant EUR gains.
  • The risk reversal (3m, 25delta) is up overnight but still down near extreme levels. The position suggests this market segment can add little to EUR/USD weakness but could add greatly to a rally.
  • Implied Vol (3m) is slipping as EUR/USD finds its “feet”.
Cross-asset valuation: EUR/USD has a strong correlation with oil (positive) and the 10yr rate spread (positive).

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